Argentina suffered unintended consequences of foreign exchange controls

Talk about unintended consequences! The latest attempt by Argentina to reduce currency flight made the situation worst.

USD vs Argentine Peso 2014 January 18 to 24

USD vs Argentine Peso January 18-24, 2014. Peso value dived on January 23.

Above is the currency exchange rate of United States Dollar (USD) vs. Argentine Peso (ARS) last week. See the huge spike? What happened?

January 22, 2014, BBC reported:

“Argentina has introduced new restrictions on online shopping as part of efforts to stop foreign currency reserves from falling any further.

Anyone buying items through international websites will now need to sign a declaration and produce it at a customs office, where the packages have to be collected.

But they didn’t think about the unintended consequences of workers losing productivity as a result:

“The real problem is that the item is received in customs now instead of at your home. Each time you go to customs, you need to spend three or four hours.

‘I lose half a day’s work, which is unacceptable.'”

Next day, January 23, Argentine Peso fell 11% against USD. The day after that, the country reversed its decision. BBC, January 24:

“Argentina is to relax its strict foreign exchange controls, a day after the peso suffered its steepest daily decline in 12 years.”

But the damage is done. System Dynamics practitioners are familiar with testing policies to determine and minimize unintended consequences of an action. Perhaps Argentina needs someone with SD knowledge to help them solve their exponential currency devaluation problem, before this continues:

five year trend of Argentina currency vs. United States dollar

five year trend of Argentina currency vs. United States dollar

Qatar Petroleum uses System Dynamics

Aamir Shehzad Qatar Petroleum

An example of System Dynamics in business by Qatar Petroleum Senior Business Analyst Aamir Shehzad:

“I am working in Doha, Qatar, in Qatar Petroleum as a Senior Business Analyst. I work in the area of Strategic Manpower Planning and Talent Management and use different tools including System Dynamics based simulation models.”

“I believe the education in System Dynamics really opens one’s horizon and equips a person to understand and solve complex problems in a better way.”

The short Q&A is posted by University of Bergen in Norway, which offers a System Dynamics program.

Open sourced web SD engine – Kickstarter funding

Open sourced System Dynamics web engine

Bobby Powers, iSeeSystems alumni and part of the development team behind STELLA Modeler for the iPad, is creating a free web platform for System Dynamics models on Kickstarter called “Approachable System Dynamics”. The goal is to create a no download, no cost method to share System Dynamics models online:

I want to enable the staggering breadth of existing system dynamics models and insights to spread at the speed of the web, and to drastically lower the friction and barrier-to-entry for creating and modifying SD models. To accomplish this I want to complete a pair of web-based technologies to be finished by the end of June, 2014:

  • An open-source library for displaying, running and exploring models in a web browser, with no reliance on plugins, desktop software to install or a specific web host.
  • A free, web-based model editor focused on traditional stock and flow system dynamics modeling. Accessible from web browsers on desktop computers, laptops, tablets and even phones, with nothing to install to get started.

Here’s a short video about the project:

Currently the project can simulate System Dynamics XMILE models in Firefox, Chrome and Safari.

The end product Javascript library will be open source. The sd.js library will be developed and released under the permissive MIT license, which gives its users the right to use, modify, sell or distribute the sd.js library however you see fit.

Interested in funding the project, go to the Approachable System Dynamics’ Kickstarter page.

System Dynamics modeling app STELLA Modeler for iPad now available

The previously reported STELLA Modeler for iPad is here from isee systems, maker of iThink / Stella.

System Dynamics modeling app STELLA Modeler for iPad

The interface is optimized for touch and it seems to be the easiest way to create System Dynamics model on a tablet. The iOS app is available to download STELLA Modeler for iPad from the App Store for $39.99.

iPad_Equation Editor

The fully featured app can create, run, and share models made with STELLA or iThink v10.

Here are some tutorial videos for Stella Modeler for iPad:

Exploring results: 80 seconds

Model settings: 3.5 minutes

Using graphical functions: 6.5 minutes

How to build a SD model using STELLA Modeler for iPad: 20 minutes

Photos from ‘A Fireside Chat with Jay Forrester’ at 2013 ISDC

Khalid Saeed, Jay Forrester, Bob Eberlein

Professor Khalid Saeed from Worcester Polytechnic Institute chaired the 2013 “Fireside Chat with Jay Forrester” which took place at the 31st International System Dynamics Conference (ISDC) in Cambridge Massachusetts. Jay W. Forrester is the founder of System Dynamics and a Professor of Management at MIT. Also on stage is Bob Eberlein.

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STELLA Modeler System Dynamics iPad modeling app previewed by isee systems

Looking for SD software that works on a tablet? A System Dynamics iPad app is coming soon from the maker of STELLA and iThink.

At the 2013 International System Dynamics Conference, isee systems previewed STELLA Modeler for iPad. The iOS app is designed to create and run STELLA and iThink models. You can both create and run SD model on an iPad.

Billy Schoenberg, a developer with isee Systems, demoed the app for SDwise. In seconds, he created a one stock and one flow System Dynamics models on an iPad:

Stella Modeler iPad System Dynamics app demoed by Billy Schoenberg, isee Systems developer

Stella Modeler iPad System Dynamics app demoed by Billy Schoenberg, isee Systems developer

This System Dynamics iPad app will have cross-platform compatibility. Models created with STELLA Modeler for iPad can be transferred to and from PC or Mac as an email attachment.

What about the release date? STELLA Modeler for iPad is currently set to go on sale around Halloween.

Healthcare innovation: System Dynamics saves Mayo Clinic 35% ESA drug costs & improves ESRD patients’ quality of life

ESA Therapy System Dynamics Causal Loop Diagram

Here’s an example healthcare industry case study that quantifies the value of System Dynamics. I saw the presentation at the 2011 International System Dynamics Conference. The presentation made an impression as it clearly explained the complex medical problem, how System Dynamics was used to create teh solution, and financial benefits.

Case study of healthcare innovation: System Dynamics computer model helps Mayo Clinic improve anemia management, substantially reduce treatment cost, and improve quality of life of End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) patients.

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2013 SD conference photos – Tuesday

A panorama of the Presidential address by Kim Warren on Tuesday, July 23 2013 - at the 31st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society in Cambridge, Massachusetts

Photos from the presentations on Tuesday, July 23, 2013, at the 31st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society in Cambridge, Massachusetts

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Jay Forrester gets World Dynamics birthday cake

System Dynamics founder Jay Forrester's reaction

Tuesday night banquet of 31st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 23, 2013.

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2013 SD conference Boston photos: Monday afternoon

2013 System Dynamics Society ISDC Boston first day afternoon

Photos from the presentations and the poster session on Monday afternoon, July 22, 2013, at the 31st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society in Cambridge, Massachusetts

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